Mario P. Varvoglis, PhD Sources:

Forced-Choice Precognition and GESP Frameworks

Mario Varvoglis has developed and tested novel forced-choice methodologies for studying precognition and general extrasensory perception (GESP), most notably the Sharefield and Selfield protocols, which attempt to address longstanding replication and participant-motivation challenges in the forced-choice literature. His work at the Institut Métapsychique International (IMI) in Paris represents a sustained effort to move beyond the limitations of classical card-guessing paradigms toward ecologically richer, internet-deployable experimental platforms.

Key findings

  • The Sharefield protocol, a novel forced-choice GESP design developed at IMI, introduced a shared target field to increase ecological validity and reduce response-bias artifacts in standard forced-choice paradigms.1
  • The Selfield protocol was designed specifically to optimize precognition research by allowing participants to self-select the timing and emotional salience of target material, addressing state-dependent moderators that may suppress psi effects in fixed-schedule designs.2
  • A preregistered 2025 forced-choice precognition study using the internet-based Psi@Home platform found no significant hit-rate increase in formal cohort data, but tryout sessions from the same participants showed a highly significant variance anomaly (p = .00003), suggesting that participant motivational state may be a critical moderating variable.3
  • Hypothesis 3 in the 2025 study, predicting higher session-variance for experienced meditators relative to a general-interest cohort, was an exploratory hypothesis confirmed (p = .03).3
  • Varvoglis has argued that forced-choice paradigms are particularly vulnerable to motivational decline across sessions, and that participant selection and protocol flexibility are underappreciated moderators in the cumulative forced-choice literature.2

Overview

Forced-choice paradigms, in which participants guess among a small, predefined set of randomized alternatives, have generated a large cumulative database in parapsychology, but they carry a well-documented vulnerability: effect sizes tend to be small and replication is inconsistent, partly because the repetitive, low-engagement structure of classical designs may suppress whatever psychological states are hypothesized to facilitate psi. Varvoglis has addressed this problem not by abandoning forced-choice methods but by redesigning them from the ground up, introducing the Sharefield (2013) and Selfield (2019) protocols and, most recently, the internet-based Psi@Home platform tested in a preregistered 2025 study.123 His theoretical framing holds that psi effects, if real, are likely state-dependent, sensitive to participant motivation, attentional focus, and the perceived meaningfulness of the task, and that standard laboratory forced-choice designs systematically undermine those states through repetition and artificiality.2

Type-II Vulnerability in Forced-Choice Designs

The forced-choice literature is particularly susceptible to Type-II error (false negatives) because the typical effect sizes are small (hit rates a few percentage points above mean chance expectation) and because motivational decline across long trial sequences can suppress effects that might appear in shorter, more engaging protocols. Varvoglis’s Selfield and Sharefield designs attempt to address this by building in participant agency over trial timing and target salience, reducing the monotony that may dilute effects in classical designs.2 The 2025 Psi@Home study illustrates the problem concretely: formal preregistered sessions showed no significant hit-rate increase, while tryout sessions from the same participants, collected under conditions of higher novelty and engagement, showed a variance anomaly at p = .00003.3

The Sharefield Protocol for GESP

The Sharefield protocol, introduced in a 2013 paper co-authored with Bancel and colleagues at IMI, represents Varvoglis’s first major methodological innovation in forced-choice GESP research. Rather than presenting a single participant with a single hidden target, the Sharefield design creates a shared target environment in which multiple participants simultaneously attempt to identify the same target, introducing a social and collaborative dimension absent from classical forced-choice designs.1

Sharefield Design Rationale and Methodology

The Sharefield protocol was designed to address two specific artifacts common in forced-choice GESP research: (1) response bias, in which participants develop idiosyncratic preferences for certain response options across trials, inflating or deflating apparent hit rates independently of any psi signal; and (2) the ecological artificiality of the standard one-sender/one-receiver dyad, which may not reflect the social contexts in which spontaneous GESP cases are reported. By having multiple participants respond to the same target simultaneously, the Sharefield design allows response-bias patterns to be identified and statistically separated from group-level convergence on the correct target. The proposed mechanism, that a shared target field might amplify or facilitate GESP, remains the researcher’s preferred interpretation and is contested; alternative interpretations include simple statistical aggregation effects and demand characteristics arising from the collaborative framing.1

The Selfield Protocol for Precognition

The Selfield protocol, described in a 2019 paper in the Journal of Parapsychology co-authored with Bancel and colleagues, was developed specifically to optimize precognition research by giving participants control over when they initiate trials and which target categories they find emotionally salient.2 The core argument is that precognition effects, if real, are most likely to appear when the future event carries personal significance for the participant, a condition that fixed-schedule laboratory designs structurally prevent.

Selfield Design: Self-Selection, Timing, and Emotional Salience

In the Selfield design, participants choose both the moment of their response and the domain of target material (e.g., nature imagery, human faces, abstract art) before the target is randomly selected from that domain. This self-selection procedure is intended to increase the emotional resonance between participant and target, a variable identified in the broader forced-choice and free-response literature as a moderator of psi performance. The specific non-psi alternative addressed by this design is motivational decline: by allowing participants to respond only when they feel ready and to choose target categories they find engaging, the protocol attempts to eliminate the boredom-induced response-set artifact that may account for the near-chance performance typical of long forced-choice series. Whether the self-selection procedure introduces its own confounds, such as demand characteristics or differential attention to certain target categories, is noted as unresolved in the 2019 paper.2

Theoretical Context: Psi and Consciousness Research

Varvoglis has situated the Selfield and Sharefield protocols within a broader theoretical framework that treats psi as a phenomenon embedded in consciousness and intentionality rather than as a simple signal-detection problem. In this framing, the participant’s psychological state, their degree of focused, purposive attention and their emotional engagement with the task, is not merely a nuisance variable to be controlled but a constitutive element of the effect itself.4 This interpretation remains the researcher’s preferred framing; alternative interpretations include the possibility that apparent state-dependent moderation reflects nothing more than regression to the mean in small samples, or that participant self-selection introduces sampling biases that inflate apparent hit rates.

Psi@Home and Selected Cohorts

The most methodologically detailed forced-choice precognition study in Varvoglis’s published record is the 2025 preregistered experiment conducted with Bancel, Boban, and Bensahra at IMI, using the internet-based Psi@Home platform.3 The study compared two cohorts, experienced meditators and a general-interest group, across 160 formal sessions (80 per cohort, 20 forced-choice trials per session) contributed by 47 participants, with data collection completed within approximately one month. The primary preregistered hypothesis (increased variance of session hit rates relative to mean chance expectation) was not confirmed in either cohort; the secondary preregistered hypothesis (increased total hit rate) was also not confirmed. However, the sole confirmed preregistered hypothesis, that meditators would show higher session-variance than the general-interest cohort (p = .03), and the striking variance anomaly in tryout data (p = .00003) from the same participants and protocol together raise the possibility that motivational and attitudinal variables during formal versus informal data collection phases are critical moderators.

Psi@Home Study: Statistical Detail and Tryout Anomaly

The 2025 Bancel, Varvoglis, Boban, and Bensahra study (N = 47 participants, 160 formal sessions at 20 trials each, plus 90 tryout sessions) preregistered three hypotheses: (H1) increased variance of session hit rates relative to MCE for each cohort, designated confirmatory; (H2) increased total hit rate relative to MCE, designated exploratory; (H3) higher session-variance for the meditator cohort than the general-interest cohort, designated exploratory. H1 and H2 were not confirmed. H3 was confirmed (p = .03). The tryout data, 90 sessions collected prior to formal data collection, with the same participants and protocol, and whose analysis was specified in the preregistration, showed a highly significant variance anomaly (p = .00003). The authors note that differences in participant attitudes during tryout versus formal phases (novelty, lower evaluative pressure, higher intrinsic motivation) may account for the discrepancy, but this interpretation is post-hoc and unconfirmed. The specific non-psi alternative addressed for the tryout anomaly is optional stopping or selective reporting: the tryout analysis was prespecified, mitigating but not eliminating this concern, since the boundary between tryout and formal phases was defined by the researchers.3

Platform Design and Replication Infrastructure

The Psi@Home platform was developed at IMI to allow participants to contribute experimental sessions from home using custom software, addressing the practical barrier of laboratory-based recruitment that limits sample sizes in parapsychology research. The platform is described as available to outside researchers, positioning it as a shared infrastructure resource for the field rather than a proprietary IMI tool. Each session comprised 20 forced-choice trials with computer-controlled target selection occurring after the participant’s response, eliminating the possibility of sensory leakage from target-to-response ordering. The platform’s internet-based architecture introduces a new artifact not present in laboratory designs: uncontrolled environmental conditions during participant sessions, which the authors acknowledge as a limitation, partially addressed by the within-participant comparison between tryout and formal phases, but not eliminated.3

Modern Context

The replication challenges documented in the 2025 Psi@Home study sit within a broader methodological debate in psychology and cognitive science about the conditions under which small effects replicate. The cumulative forced-choice precognition literature, as reviewed by Bem and colleagues and by Storm and Tressoldi, reports positive overall effect sizes, but individual preregistered replications frequently fail to reach significance, a pattern consistent with either a small true effect that requires large N to detect reliably, or with publication bias inflating the cumulative estimate.3 Varvoglis’s protocol-innovation approach, redesigning the task rather than simply increasing N, represents one response to this replication problem, though whether the Selfield and Sharefield designs produce more consistent effects than classical forced-choice paradigms remains to be established through independent replication.2

References
  1. Varvoglis, M., Bancel, P. A., Si Ahmed, D., Bailly, J. P., & Béguian, C. (2013). The sharefield: A novel approach for forced-choice GESP research. Journal of Parapsychology, 77, 181–183. R001 [Varvoglis 2013] ↩︎
  2. Varvoglis, M., Bancel, P. A., Bailly, J., Boban, J., et al. (2019). The Selfield: Optimizing Precognition Research. Journal of Parapsychology, 83(1), 13–24. https://doi.org/10.30891/jopar.2019.01.02 R002 [Varvoglis 2019] ↩︎
  3. Bancel, P. A., Varvoglis, M., Boban, J., & Bensahra, A. (2025). A Forced-choice Precognition Experiment with Selected Cohorts. Journal of Anomalous Experience and Cognition, 5(1), 14–46. https://journals.lub.lu.se/jaex/article/view/26394 R003 [Bancel 2025] ↩︎
  4. Varvoglis, M. (1996). Nonlocality on a Human Scale: Psi and Consciousness Research. The MIT Press, 566–572. https://doi.org/10.7551/mitpress/6860.003.0051 R004 [Varvoglis 1996] ↩︎

Last updated: 2026-05-30 23:07:04

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